don’t hold your breath

It’s budget day next Wednesday. The budget is late this year. That’s because the government hasn’t got a clue what to do about the plunging economy, has lost count of its bailouts and now thinks a bank statement is a bit of paper that comes in the post once a month to show how many banks you own.

Tradition has it that chancellor Alistair Darling will stand on the steps of one of his three homes waving the legendary budget box around before scooting off to parliament for the speech.

Also by tradition, the budget is supposed to be top secret before the chancellor does his number in the commons. We’re not supposed to know what’s in it – it’s only our money, after all.

But to be honest, it’s not all that secret. We know what the government is like, so we can take a fair guess at what’s in the magic box.

First up, there will be another bucketload of money for bombshells. Back in March 2005, the then chancellor Gordon Brown boasted in his pre-election budget speech:

It is because our public finances are strong that in this parliament we have also been able to meet the extra and unanticipated costs of Iraq, Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism – in total £4.9bn – and today I am able to set aside for additional defence expenditure for the year ahead an extra £400m.

Now of course, our public finances have turned into a sort of vortex, with failed banks hoovering up the taxpayers’ cash. But somehow, I think we’re going to hear Alistair explaining that because our finances are so wonderfully weak, he is able to set aside millions of pounds to kill people in Iraq and Afghanistan. Piling up corpses is a priority, after all.

Actually, if you want a laugh, you should read a bit more of Gordon’s speech.

Those in this house who have forecast recession and those who have called our spending unaffordable have been consistently wrong…

Anyway, back to the recession. The government does have a plan to tackle the recession: it’s about making us pay for it. This is a kind of pay now, pay later deal. If you work in the private sector – in a car plant, say – you might get to pay now. If you work in the public sector, you’ll pay later . If you used to work for Woolworths, you’ve already paid your first instalment on the Darling plan.

Anyone who uses public services will pay later too. Because the cutbacks are coming. Here’s how it works. Buried in his November pre-budget report, Darling announced a squeeze on future public spending. To the tune of a cool £37bn. That was supposed to refill the Treasury coffers, which after the recession and little matters like buying out Northern Rock will be looking a tad empty.

But the recession has got deeper since then, and we’ve been bailing out the banks left right and centre. So buried somewhere in next Wednesday’s paperwork will be a bit of government-speak that will translate to an even bigger public spending squeeze. Who needs public services anyway?

Oh, and we will see which of the various government agencies now being eyed up by the asset strippers – the Royal Mint, the Met Office, British Waterways – will be flogged off in the next round of privatisation.

Darling is also supposed to spell out where an extra £5bn “efficiency savings” – that’s cuts to you and me – will be made in 2010/11. That number could go up too, of course. And he will probably tell us when VAT – a nasty regressive tax that penalises poorer people – will be lurching back up again.

Alistair will be trying to show his caring side, however. The chancellor will probably make some noises about how the government is going to eradicate child poverty. There may even be some extra pennies doled out in the short-term in child tax credits or child benefit – or perhaps pensions. Something like that.

But don’t kid yourselves, kiddies. The government won’t be doing this because it loves the poor. It’s had ten years to bring child benefit up to a level that parents might recognise as vaguely approaching the cost of doing right by their kids. Hasn’t happened.

The hand-out will be proffered for another reason: to help big business through the recession. If you give money to people who are skint, they are more likely to spend it quickly – because there is already a list of stuff that needs buying, urgently. The idea is to refloat the economy by relying on whoever can least afford it to spend frantically.

But when clawback time comes, it will be these same people paying the price as public services are slashed back – “efficiency savings” at the social services department, anyone?

That’s my best guess at Darling’s budget on Wednesday. He will also say the words green, jobs, green jobs, infrastructure and families. A lot.

But if you’re waiting for hundreds of nice green jobs to become available near you or a sharp cut in arms spending, don’t hold your breath.